(ii) deliver a significantly improved match between ex ante and ex post forecast uncertainty. According to our estimates …, uncertainty about inflation, output growth and unemployment in the U.S. and the Euro area is higher after correcting for the … survey‐based average uncertainty during the years since the financial and sovereign debt crisis. …

Among many risk assessment techniques, qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative, risk matrix is a common tool to … assess risk by allocating frequency and consequence of an accident to one of the pre divided frequency and consequence … categories. However, since there is no standardized way to define these categories, risk matrix with its strength of being …

Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. We then link our proposed model to an extended version of the credit … risk model CreditRisk+. This allows exact risk aggregation via an efficient numerically stable Panjer recursion algorithm …. Furthermore, the model allows exact (without Monte Carlo simulation error) calculation of risk measures and their sensitivities …