. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast framework based on enodogenous growth theory with human and fixed … capital. A central result is a pronounced projected decrease in human capital, substantially weighing on the long-run GDP …

predictive power for GDP data revisions. A positive (negative) error in Okun's Law in real time implies that GDP will be later … about the true state of real economic activity also helps to improve GDP forecasts in the near term. Our findings add a new … a change in potential GDP, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the use of labor's intensive margin. …

This paper develops an approach to measure the uncertainty surrounding expected GDP growth that prevails in the economy …. This is accomplished by making use of consensus forecasts of GDP growth and by studying the properties of distributions of … forecasted euro area GDP growth. A euro area distribution is constructed from the mean distributions of individual country …