In this paper we evaluate the forecasting power of employment expectations for total employment in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from 1998Q1 to 2012Q4. With in-sample and pseudo out-of-sample exercises we find that for most of the European states considered, the survey–based...

In diesem Papier evaluieren wir für 15 europäische Staaten, inwiefern Beschäftigungserwartungen die Prognosegüte des Erwerbstätigenwachstums verbessert. Unser Beobachtungszeitraum beginnt mit dem ersten Quartal 1998 und endet mit dem vierten Quartal 2014. Mit In-Sample- und...

Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts (READ-GER). The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states....

In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses and forecastencompassing tests reveal that survey-based indicators...

The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the most important leading indicators for gross domestic product. However, the ifo Business Survey is not solely limited to the Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of...

In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified...

In this paper, we study the predictive power of electricity consumption data for regional economic activity. Using unique weekly and monthly electricity consumption data for the second-largest German state, the Free State of Bavaria, we conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the...