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How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies
Snowberg, Erik - 2011
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125691
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How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies
Snowberg, Erik - 2011
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions ﾖ from the economic effects of party control of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126921
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How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies
Snowberg, Erik - 2011
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127433
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How prediction markets can save event studies
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2011
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009238627
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How prediction markets can save event studies
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009006797
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How prediction markets can save event studies
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2011
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009124168
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Electoral cycles in macroeconomic forecasts
Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2021
This paper documents the existence of Political Forecast Cycles. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias arises from lack of commitment if voters are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012514965
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Electoral cycles in macroeconomic forecasts
Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2022
This paper documents the existence of electoral cycles in GDP growth forecasts released by governments. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013336207
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Biased forecasts and voting : the Brexit referendum case
Bizzotto, Jacopo; Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2024 - This version: July 1, 2024
This paper explores whether professional macroeconomic forecasters manipulate their forecasts to influence voting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014583811
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Modeling migration dynamics in stochastic labor supply forecasting
Hellwagner, Timon; Söhnlein, Doris; Weber, Enzo - 2023
. Thereby, among the demographic components, migration is the one shaping both the size and the structure of a population the … strongest in the short to medium term while simultaneously exhibiting high uncertainty, with migration patterns varying between … future immigration flows across origin countries nor for the interdependencies of immigration and emigration in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014282754