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forecasters with economic interest (stakes) and influence to publish biased forecasts prior to a referendum. We test our theory … institutions and the propaganda bias explains up to 50 percent of their forecast error. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990008
forecasters with economic interest (stakes) and in uence to publish biased forecasts prior to a referendum. We test our theory … institutions and the propaganda bias explains up to 50 percent of their forecast error. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011984037
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060709
The unequal distribution of labor income in Germany is a hotly debated topic among policymakers and the general public alike. However, the relevant data for calculating the distribution is usually available with a delay of sometimes over two years. Accordingly, previous studies have only been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431177
The recovery of the German economy is becoming an exercise in patience. In the third quarter of 2023 the economy fared worse than expected, in particular because private households continued to spend their money conservatively despite climbing wages and falling inflation. Both private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014466268
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009736903
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474728
Wage inequality in Chile has remained high for decades and it is currently at the center of the political agenda. Increasing education of workers is expected to contribute to reduce wage inequality. Based on historical trends of age, education, and returns to education, this paper attempts to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003746852
Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012733915
OLS models are the predominant choice for poverty predictions in a variety of contexts such as proxy-means tests, poverty mapping or cross-survey imputations. This paper compares the performance of econometric and machine learning models in predicting poverty using alternative objective...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159707