risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals …' responsiveness in the long run. Using an online experiment, we assess how false alarm and missed alarm-prone forecast systems …

We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 …. The prediction of choice reversal is then refined by introducing heterogeneity between decision makers through a … differentiation of the population into two similar sized groups in terms of "over-confident" and "contrarian" decision makers. This …

We conduct a lottery experiment to assess the predictive importance of simple choice process metrics (SCPMs) in … modeling approaches. The SCPMs are recorded during a fixed pre-decision phase and are derived from tracking subjects' eye … subject-specific risk preferences and is largely driven by including information on lottery design variables. As a key result …

In many decisions, we are not only uncertain about the predicted outcomes of decision alternatives but also about … or in standard utility theory. Based on the expected expected utility (EEU) concept, we consider uncertain predictions … environmental decision problems and we apply it to a hypothetical multi-criteria decision regarding coral reef management with …

Discrimination is a pervasive aspect of modern society and human relations. Statistical discrimination theory suggests …, whereas statistical discrimination theory implies that better predictions can be achieved by using all available information … improves or worsens predictions, our work cautions decision makers and uncovers paths toward reducing the occurrence of …

We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors … three seconds of lottery-information processing. The results of our forecasting experiment show that choice-process data can …

This work reports an online experiment with a general-population sample examining the performance of budget …-choice tasks for elicitation of risk attitudes. First, I compare the investment task of Gneezy and Potters (1997) with the standard …