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Vote self-prediction hardly predicts who will vote, and is (misleadingly) unbiased
Rogers, Todd; Aida, Masa - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009736903
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The wisdom of crowds : applying Condorcet's jury theorem to forecasting US presidential elections
Murr, Andreas E. - In: International journal of forecasting 31 (2015) 3, pp. 916-929
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474728
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Biased forecasts to affect voting decisions? : the Brexit case
Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2019
influence voting outcomes. We develop a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the … forecasters with economic interest (stakes) and influence to publish biased forecasts prior to a referendum. We test our theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990008
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Biased forecasts to affect voting decisions? : the Brexit case
Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2019
uence voting outcomes. We develop a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the … forecasters with economic interest (stakes) and in uence to publish biased forecasts prior to a referendum. We test our theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011984037
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How they lost the presidency
Walker, David - In: Applied economics 50 (2018) 38, pp. 4113-4121
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060709
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MPC voting, forecasting and inflation
Charemza, Wojciech; Ladley, Dan - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009670637
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Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets
Strijbis, Oliver; Arnesen, Sveinung - In: International journal of forecasting 35 (2019) 1, pp. 408-419
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300662
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Testing the Predictions of the Multidimensional Spatial Voting Model with Roll Call Data
Jeong, Gyung-Ho - 2010
the predictions of the spatial voting model. I illustrate this procedure by testing the predictive power of the uncovered … set - a solution concept of the multidimensional spatial voting model - using roll call data from the U.S. Senate. Since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151483
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Legislating stock prices
Cohen, Lauren; Diether, Karl; Malloy, Christopher - In: Journal of financial economics 110 (2013) 3, pp. 574-595
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010255192
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The predictive power of political pundits : prescient or pitiful?
Metaxas, Phillip; Leigh, Andrew - 2013
Although Australian political pundits frequently make predictions about the future, little systematic evidence exists on the accuracy of these predictions. To assess the predictive power of experts, we survey the transcripts of two well-known political programs - Insiders and Meet the Press -...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009748356