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This study analyzes investors' perception of placebic information and its impact on stock price estimates. We initiate … show that placebic information increases the perceived amount of relevant information. Individual participants …' characteristics, such as gender, financial knowledge or overconfidence, do not affect these findings. Placebic information does not …
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Initial applications of prediction markets (PMs) indicate they provide good forecasting instruments in many settings, such as elections, the box office, or product sales. One particular characteristic of these “first-generation” (G1) PMs is that they link the payoff value of a stock's share...
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Agents have foresight when they receive information about a random process above and beyond the information contained … in its current and past history. In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic measure of the quantity of foresight … in an information structure, and show how to separate informational assumptions about foresight from physical assumptions …
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