We present a volatility forecasting comparative study within the ARCH class of models. Our goal is to identify successful predictive models over multiple horizons and to investigate how predictive ability is influenced by choices for estimation window length, innovation distribution, and...

Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Robert F. .Engle Edited by Tim Bollerslev, Jeffrey R. Russell, and Mark W. Watson OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS ...

We survey recent methodological contributions in asset pricing using factor models and machine learning. We organize these results based on their primary objectives: estimating expected returns, factors, risk exposures, risk premia, and the stochastic discount factor as well as model comparison...

We forecast a single time series using many predictor variables with a new estimator called the three-pass regression filter (3PRF). It is calculated in closed form and conveniently represented as a set of ordinary least squares regressions. 3PRF forecasts converge to the infeasible best...

We propose a method for constructing conditional option return distributions. In our model, uncertainty about the future option return has two sources: Changes in the position and shape of the implied volatility surface that shift option values (holding moneyness and maturity fixed), and changes...

We introduce a new text-mining methodology that extracts information from news articles to predict asset returns. Unlike more common sentiment scores used for stock return prediction (e.g., those sold by commercial vendors or built with dictionary-based methods), our supervised learning...