Brand distribution and promotional decisions require store-level forecasts for Brand sales. This may be accomplished by developing individual store-level models using store-level sales and promotional data. The disadvantage in this is that the number of models could run into hundreds. Also,...

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy...

This paper examines the behaviour of the demand for money in Greece during 1976:1-2000:4, a period that included many of the influences that cause money-demand instability. Two empirical methodologies, vector error correction (VEC) modelling and second-generation random coefficient (RC)...

This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models,...

Modelling and forecasting of asset volatility and covariance is of prime importance in the construction of portfolios. In this paper, we present a generalised multi-factor model that incorporates heteroskedasticity and dependence in the idiosyncratic error terms. We apply this model to...

Following recent advances in the non-parametric realized volatility approach, we separately measure the discontinuous jump part of the quadratic variation process for individual stocks and incorporate it into heterogeneous autoregressive volatility models. We analyze the distributional...

Prediction market prices are often used as estimates of the probability of outcomes in future elections and referendums. I argue that this practice is often flawed, and I develop a model that empiricists can use to partially identify probabilities from prediction market prices. In the special...

Contemporaneous inference from economic data releases for policy and business decisions has become increasingly relevant in the high pace of the information age. The released data are typically filtered to eliminate seasonal patterns to reveal underlying trends and cycles. The nature of economic...

This paper proposes a predictive maintenance policy using modified failure mode effect and criticality analysis (Mod-FMECA) technique. FMECA is used to identify failure modes, reasons, effects and criticality of the system (machine/plant) but in Mod-FMECA in addition to the analysis carried for...