Globally, the majority of countries using inflation targets have done so when inflation was neither low nor stable. Many such countries have changed their target each year, and our empirical estimates support theoretical predictions that annual changes to the target are endogenous to outcomes....

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...