Showing 1 - 10 of 2,485
expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of …. Uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model … content of indicators, while higher fundamental uncertainty makes this informational content more valuable. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549
expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of …. Uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model … content of indicators, while higher fundamental uncertainty makes this informational content more valuable. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404647
Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments implied-volatility information, derived from contemporaneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors, such as GARCH models, are investigated, to determine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767118
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012322176
— change when investor demand for information is likely to be especially high, i.e., during periods of high uncertainty …. Findings reveal that when uncertainty is high, analysts' forecasts are more timely but less accurate. However, analysts … findings resulting from uncertainty in general rather than just uncertainty associated with market declines. We also examine …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010250690
The Great Recession has been characterised by the two stylized facts: the buildup of leverage in the household sector in the period preceding the recession and a protracted economic recovery that followed. We attempt to explain these two facts as an information friction, whereby agents are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011656163
with this hypothesis, we show that a one-standard-deviation increase in aggregate uncertainty amplifies the predictive … ability of sentiment for market returns by two to four times relative to when uncertainty is at its mean. We find similar … sensitive to sentiment and for anomaly returns is substantially larger in times of higher uncertainty. The results hold for both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012216707
This paper proposes a tail risk index, TIX, as the growth rate of the model-free cumulant generating function of market risk calculated from index option prices. It captures the power law decay rate of the left tail of future return distributions, and thus reflects market beliefs about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968420
Using the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index of Baker et al. (2016), we examine the influence of EPU on the … uncertainty and Japanese trade policy uncertainty are particularly important in generating forecast dispersion. The empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239718
uncertainty and recursive utility function. Within such a framework, the negative volatility risk premium implied from option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117074