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Markets are increasingly used as information aggregation mechanisms to predict future events. If policy makers make use …. First, manipulators affect market prices, making them less informative. Second, when there are manipulators, policy makers …
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Bayesian forecasting is a natural product of a Bayesian approach to inference. The Bayesian approach in general requires explicit formulation of a model, and conditioning on known quantities, in order to draw inferences about unknown ones. In Bayesian forecasting, one simply takes a subset of...
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