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Estimating and forecasting the impact of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria using threshold analysis

Okoroafor, David O. K.; Adeniji, Sesan O.; Olasehinde, … - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 9 (2018) 1, pp. 1-22

Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Av- erage (ARIMA) and a multivariate time series Vector Autoregressive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011922677

The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation

Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2016

We explore the ability of traditional core inflation – consumer prices excluding food and energy – to predict headline CPI annual inflation. We analyze a sample of OECD and non-OECD economies using monthly data from January 1994 to March 2015. Our results indicate that sizable predictability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001948

Forecast Combination, Non-linear Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy

Gibbs, Christopher - 2016

This paper introduces the concept of a Forecast Combination Equilibrium to model boundedly rational agents who combine a menu of different forecasts using insights from the forecasting literature to mimic the behavior of actual forecasters. The equilibrium concept is consistent with rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005127

A Collection on the Versatility and Predictive Power of Survey Expectations Data

Guzman, Giselle - 2014

This collection of papers analyzes the versatility and predictive power of survey expectations data in asset pricing and macroeconomic forecasting. The first paper, Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055949

Time Series Modeling and Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from Nigeria

Kelikume, Ikechukwu - 2014

A major concern of entrepreneurs and monetary authorities in Nigeria in the past decades was successful prediction general price level movements. The results allow successful planning on the part of monetary authorities and continued profit drive on the part of entrepreneurs and investors. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063004

Forecasting CPI Shelter Under Falling Market-Rent Growth

Cotton, Christopher; O’Shea, John - 2023

Shelter (housing) costs constitute a large component of price indexes, including 42 percent of the widely followed core Consumer Price Index (CPI). The shelter prices measured in the CPI capture new and existing renters and tend to lag market rents. This lag explains how in recent months the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354997

Machine learning methods for inflation forecasting in Brazil : new contenders versus classical models

Araújo, Gustavo Silva; Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza - In: Latin American journal of central banking : LAJCB 4 (2023) 2, pp. 1-29

In this paper, we explore machine learning (ML) methods to improve inflation forecasting in Brazil. An extensive out-of-sample forecasting exercise is designed with multiple horizons, a large database of 501 series, and 50 forecasting methods, including new ML techniques proposed here,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382916

Forecasting and policy making

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237

OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis : a post mortem

Pain, Nigel; Lewis, Christine; Dang, Thai Thanh; Jin, Yosuke - 2014

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419

Short-term inflation forecasting models for Nigeria

Doguwa, Sani I.; Alade, Sarah O. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 4 (2013) 3, pp. 1-29

Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and … relatively bad. For forecast of food inflation up to ten months ahead SARIMA is recommended, but for eleven to twelve months … ahead the SARIMAX model performs better. However, the SARIMA model for core inflation consistently outperforms the SARIMAX …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011488735