I survey and discuss the recent literature on testing experts or probabilistic forecasts, which I would describe as a literature on “strategic hypothesis testing” The starting point of this literature is some surprising results of the following type: suppose that a criterion forjudging...

The difficulties in properly anticipating key economic variables may encourage decision makers to rely on experts' forecasts. Professional forecasters, however, may not be reliable and so their forecasts must be empirically tested. This may induce experts to forecast strategically in order to...