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, we explore the ability of the MIDAS model to provide forecast updates for GDP growth (nowcasting). …
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We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly taking into account the supply or production side and the demand side of GDP. The GDP figures calculated by the two sides usually yield different results and the official GDP...
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The notion of bounded rationality has received a considerable attention in the midst of debate over the usefulness of various macroeconomic models. In this paper we empirically seek to analyze the baseline New-Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents who may adopt various heuristics used to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011635481
Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers, forecasters and the general public. Recent studies indicated the possibility of a slowdown in output, resulting from the pessimism of consumers in their expectations about the general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473528
investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency. While nowcasting uses data up to (and including) the quarter to be … that taking explicit account of regimes clearly improves nowcasting, and different regimes are important for GDP … certain regimes, like tourist arrivals in the non-recession regime when nowcasting consumption, while other variables are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014432187