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Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function

Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - 2014

labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the … findings can be improved by a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function. For this purpose, we construct so … der Prognosegüte der Matching-Funktion. Theoretisch sinkt die Matchingeffizienz mit höherem Mismatch, wodurch das Risiko …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401765

Grand Canonical Minority Game as a Sign Predictor

Wawrzyniak, Karol - 2014

In this paper the extended model of Minority game (MG), incorporating variable number of agents and therefore called Grand Canonical, is used for prediction. We proved that the best MG-based predictor is constituted by a tremendously degenerated system, when only one agent is involved. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059395

Improving Decisions With Market Information : An Experiment on Corporate Prediction Markets

Dianat, Ahrash - 2020

We conduct a lab experiment to investigate an important corporate prediction market setting: A manager needs information about the state of a project, which workers have, in order to make a state-dependent decision. Workers can potentially reveal this information by trading in a corporate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012849972

Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty

Sornette, Didier; Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Murphy, … - 2020

To study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set-up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012231540

Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Uncertainty in a Model with Heterogeneous Forecasts

Brock, William A. - 2015

Recent research in macroeconomics has sought to develop a tractable form of heterogeneity in attempting to model sluggishness of response of the economy consistent with data. Sims (2003) argued that limited information processing was a promising avenue for understanding pervasive stickiness....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031084

Indeterminacy and Forecastability

Fujiwara, Ippei - 2015

Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035349

Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Real-time Probabilistic Data for Cyber Risk (Super) – Forecasting

Radanliev, Petar - 2020

This paper surveys deep learning algorithms, IoT cyber security and risk models, and established mathematical formulas to identify the best approach for developing a dynamic and self-adapting system for predictive cyber risk analytics supported with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839670

Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Williams, Noah - 2021

We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318147

An Interpretable Machine Learning Workflow with An Application to Economic Forecasting

Buckmann, Marcus; Joseph, Andreas - 2022

We propose a generic workflow for the use of machine learning models to inform decision making and to communicate modelling results with stakeholders. It involves three steps: (1) a comparative model evaluation, (2) a feature importance analysis and (3) statistical inference based on Shapley...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082579

Dynamics, Stability, and Foresight in the Shapley-Scarf Housing Market

Kamijo, Yoshio - 2009

While most of the literature starting with Shapley and Scarf (1974) have considered a static exchange economy with indivisibilities, this paper studies the dynamics of such an economy. We find that both the dynamics generated by competitive equilibrium and the one generated by weakly dominance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157433