We examine transaction-level data from Intrade's 2012 presidential winner market for the entire two-year period for which trading occurred. The data allow us to compute key statistics, including volume, transactions, aggression, directional exposure, holding duration, margin, and profit for each...

Using the 2008 elections, I explore the accuracy and informational content of forecasts derived from two different types of data: Polls and prediction markets. Both types of data suffer from inherent biases, and this is the first analysis to compare the accuracy of these forecasts adjusting for...

We study misaligned prices for logically related contracts in prediction markets. First, we uncover persistent arbitrage opportunities for risk-neutral investors between identical contracts on different exchanges. Examining the impact of several thousand dollars of transactions on the exchanges...