This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...

The Internet Appendix consists of three sections. Section A shows data sources and detailed data processing procedures. In Section B, we outline seven forecasting models. Last, Section C represents the empirical results

This paper explores the possibility of the potential usage of machine learning models in the field of realized volatility forecasting of crude oil with a vast variety of empirical analyses and robustness checks. Although the conventional heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is widely...

After treating Gross Fixed Capital Formation and Domestic and Public Consumption, we continue with the problem of the relation between predictability and complexity in Romanian economy, analyzing other two components of GDP: Import and Export. The macroeconomic forecasting is a very difficult...

The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a co-movement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore,...

The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a comovement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore,...

We analyze the quality of Bitcoin volatility forecasting of GARCH-type models applying different volatility proxies and loss functions. We construct model confidence sets and find them to be systematically smaller for asymmetric loss functions and a jump robust proxy

A plethora of academic papers on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been published in academic journals. Yet few, if indeed any, of these are employed by practitioners. Previous academic studies produce results...