We document a substantial increase in downside risk to US economic growth over the last 30 years. By modelling secular trends and cyclical changes of the predictive density of GDP growth, we find an accelerating decline in the skewness of the conditional distributions, with significant,...

The paper uses dynamic quantile regressions to estimate and forecast the conditional distribution of euro-area inflation. As in a Phillips curve relationship we assume that inflation quantiles depend on past inflation, the output gap, and other determinants, namely oil prices and the exchange...