We consider the fundamental issue of what makes a “good” probability forecast for a central bank operating within an inflation targeting framework. We provide two examples in which the candidate forecasts comfortably outperform those from benchmark specifications by conventional statistical...

This research focuses on developing a bankruptcy prediction model in the UK construction industry. It fills the gap of previous researches which did not focus on the construction industry and in the UK. The aim of this research is to establish accurate model which successfully classify firms...

Big Data and artificial intelligence are quickly changing economic forecasting practices. While the big data analytics is gradually applied in the construction industry, it has not been widely used for construction predictions. Although the economists start to use Google search data to predict...