In asset pricing, estimation risk refers to investor uncertainty about the parameters of the return or cashflow process. We show that with estimation risk the observable properties of prices and returns can differ significantly from the properties perceived by rational investors. In particular,...

In this paper, we provide an exact finite sample analysis of predictive regressions with overlapping long-horizon returns. This analysis allows us to evaluate the reliability of various asymptotic theories for predictive regressions in finite samples. In addition, our finite sample analysis...

Sectoral labor reallocation shocks change the optimal allocation of workers across industries. We find that a proxy for this type of labor market shocks has very strong and robust predictive power for future stock market returns. In predictive regressions, the one-year out-of-sample R2 is as...

For many multi-factor asset pricing models proposed in the recent literature, their implied tang-ency portfolios have substantially higher sample Sharpe ratios than that of the value-weighted market portfolio. In contrast, such high sample Sharpe ratio is rarely delivered by professional fund...