This paper assesses the contribution of Canadian and International (US) confidence data, drawn from consumer and business sentiment surveys, for forecasting Canadian GDP growth. The targeting approaches of Bai and Ng (2008) and Bai and Ng (2009) are employed to extract promising predictors from...

This paper assesses the contribution of confidence - or sentiment - data in predicting Canadian economic slowdowns. A probit framework is specified and applied to an indicator on the status of the Canadian business cycle produced by the OECD. Explanatory variables include all available Canadian...

This paper documents the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian Model for Canada. We repeatedly estimate our variant of the model on a series of rolling subsamples, forecasting out-of-sample one to eight quarters ahead at each step. We then compare these forecasts to those...