An earnings manipulation detection model based on forensic accounting principles (Beneish 1999) has substantial out-of-sample ability to predict cross-sectional returns. We show that the model correctly identified, ahead of time, 12 of the 17 highest profile fraud cases in the period 1998-2002....

This paper examines how overconfidence affects the properties of management forecasts. Using both the lsquo;over-optimism' and lsquo;miscalibration' dimensions of overconfidence to generate our predictions, we examine three research questions. First, we examine whether overconfidence increases...

We correlate analysts' forecast errors with temporal variation in investor sentiment. We find that when sentiment is high, analysts' forecasts of one-year-ahead earnings and long-term earnings growth are relatively more optimistic for “uncertain” or “difficult to value” firms. Adding...

Prior accounting research uses the width of management range forecasts as a measure of managers' uncertainty about future earnings. However, range forecasts do not provide any information about the likelihood that future earnings will fall within the forecast bounds. The absence of information...