We examine the predictability of government bond returns using a deep sample spanning 70 years of international data across the major bond markets. Using an economic, trading-based testing framework we find strong economic and statistical evidence of bond return predictability with a Sharpe...

A methodology is developed for constructing robust forecast combinations which improve upon a given benchmark specification for all symmetric and convex loss functions. The optimal forecast combination asymptotically almost surely dominates the benchmark and, in addition, minimizes the expected...

Abstract A nonparametric method for comparing multiple forecast models is developed and implemented. The hypothesis of Optimal Predictive Ability generalizes the Superior Predictive Ability hypothesis from a single given loss function to an entire class of loss functions. Distinction is drawn...