are commonly linked to conflict incidence. A logit model is fitted to sub-national data for Africa at grid-cell level … predictor of future conflict is current conflict incidence in the grid-cell and neighbouring cells. Additionally, the infant … conflict dynamics. Finally, the presented results are based on a relatively simple regression model commonly used in the …

forecast outcomes in conflict situations. I first define what is meant here by conflict situations. Next, I describe …

Basel sanctions against a country. In terms of sanction prediction, the random forest classifiers outperformed the stand …