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theory assumes that return shocks can be caused by changes in conditional volatility through a time-varying risk premium. On … leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128856
This paper documents law of one price violations in equity volatility markets. While tightly linked by no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391498
This paper provides empirical evidence that volatility markets are integrated through the time-varying term structure … of variance risk premia. These risk premia predict the returns from selling volatility for different horizons, maturities … significance from the no-arbitrage prices and bounds implied by the variance swap market. The paper examines these pricing errors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904683
Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern … forecasting techniques, based on machine learning, can readily be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily time …-ahead volatility by using high-frequency data. We show that the dilated convolutional filters are ideally suited to extract relevant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236547
This paper investigates international index return predictability using option-implied information. We document the significant predictive power of the variance risk premium (VRP), Foster-Hart risk (FH), and higher-order moments for horizons ranging from 1 to 250 days. Our results from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112697
implications from a long-run risk model incorporating both time varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new … direct estimation of the underlying “structural” shocks and economic transmission mechanisms, including a new volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097882
This paper investigates international index return predictability using daily-updated option-implied information in predictive regressions and out-of-sample forecasts. We document the significant predictive power of the variance risk premium (VRP), Generalized Riskiness (GR), and higher-order...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853217
frequency volatilities and correlations ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Spline-GARCH ; Idiosyncratic volatility ; Long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
An accurate forecast of intraday volume is a key aspect of algorithmic trading. This manuscript proposes a state-space model to forecast intraday trading volume via the Kalman filter and derives closed-form expectation-maximization (EM) solutions for model calibration. The model is extended to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012930388
In this paper, I show that the variance of Fama-French factors, the variance of the momentum factor, as well as the correlation between these factors, predict an important fraction of the time-series variation in post-1990 aggregate stock market returns. This predictability is particularly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150662