This paper focuses on the cross-dynamics of exchange rate expectations over different time-scales. We use over-the-counter currency options on the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar to extract expected probability density functions of future exchange rates, and...

This paper tests the hypothesis that stress tests are primarily a function of the fundamental financial condition and operating environment of individual banks, rather than alternative adverse economic and financial scenarios imposed by regulators. We develop a novel early warning system based...

This study investigates the efficacy of the Prophet model by Facebook with respect to forecasting bank capital ratios. Bank financial ratios and macroeconomic information are combined to forecast total risk-adjusted capital ratios for 19 large U.S. banks. Using a sample period from March 2005 to...

How can business leaders make better production and capital investment decisions? How can Wall Street analysts improve their predictions of future stock market values? How can government improve macroeconomic forecasts and policies? In The Power of Profit, Anari and Kolari demonstrate how profit...

ai"The trend is your friend"is a practical principle often used by business managers, who seek to forecast future sales, expenditures, and profitability in order to make production and other operational decisions. The problem is how best to identify and discover business trends and utilize trend...