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We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751251
This paper examines the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and stock returns in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries by applying parametric and nonparametric approaches. It also explores the idiosyncratic risk puzzle by dividing firms into groups based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014307488
volatility, but without the estimation problems associated with the latter, and being applicable in the multivariate setting for … model in several ways, it allows for all the primary stylized facts of financial asset returns, including volatility … EM-algorithm is developed for estimation. Each element of the vector return at time t is endowed with a common univariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010256409
Theory suggests a relationship between both volatility of volatility, variance risk premium, and the equity risk … premium. We empirically investigate the relationship between volatility of volatility and the equity risk premium, and the … relationship between the variance risk premium and the equity risk premium. We find that volatility of volatility alone explains 5 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035199
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
foreign exchange markets. -- Random Lognormal cascades ; GMM estimation ; best linear forecasting ; volatility of financial … Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure to cope with the documented difficulties of previous methodologies. We … by estimating the intermittency parameter and forecasting of volatility for a sample of financial data from stock and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009389845
We examine the performance of volatility models that incorporate features such as long (short) memory, regime …-t). Second, we perform a comprehensive panel forecasting analysis of the MSM models as well as other competing volatility models … (GMM) estimation are both suitable for MSM-t models, (ii) empirical panel forecasts of MSM-t models show an improvement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003864486
We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618
leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The … leverage hypothesis asserts that return shocks lead to changes in conditional volatility, while the volatility feedback effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128856