Researchers and practitioners employ a variety of time-series processes to forecast betas, using either short-memory models or implicitly imposing infinite memory. We find that both approaches are inadequate: beta factors show consistent long-memory properties. For the vast majority of stocks,...

This paper provides global evidence supporting the hypothesis that expected return models are enhanced by the inclusion of variables that describe the evolution of book-to-market-changes in book value, changes in price, and net share issues. This conclusion is supported using data representing...

Long histories of returns are needed but often lacking when estimating the equity premium. This paper studies stock return predictability from the perspective of a Bayesian investor who has access to international data. Learning across countries arises whenever this investor believes that...

This paper considers how an investor in the foreign exchange market can exploit predictive information by means of flexible Bayesian inference. Using a variety of different vector autoregressive models, the investor is able, each period, to revise past predictive mistakes and learn about...

The study examined high volatile assets, specifically the currency exchange rate of the open financial market. Takes into consideration the five most traded paired currencies of the global financial market. And observed, generally, the data set of the unit currency exchange rate exhibit...

Ungeheuer and Weber (2021, UW) propose a Comove measure, the fraction of weekly stock returns that are in the same direction as the market, and document that Comove positively predicts cross-sectional stock returns. We show that Comove is strongly negatively correlated with idiosyncratic...

Most capital market forecasts for the year ahead tend to be narrow consensus extrapolations of broad trends and historic data, in which analysts look in particular at the last 12 months, especially in a rising market, and assume, as a baseline, that a similar outcome will recur in the next 12...

We construct a global implied volatility surface by combining information from the index options of twenty countries and regions. The convexity of the global surface positively predicts equity premia around the world, in- and out-of-sample, at horizons from one to twelve months. Semi-annually,...

We construct mean-variance optimized currency portfolios and analyze the time- series variation of the conditional Sharpe ratio. Returns, volatility and skewness are predictable. Market timing – i.e., trading more (less) aggressively when the conditional risk-return trade-off is more (less)...