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Medovikov, Ivan - 2018

/B/E/S consensus recommendations issued for U.S.-listed equities during January 2015 with realized volatility of daily security returns … to be associated with future changes in volatility, suggesting that analyst ratings can help manage portfolio risk. This … relationship appears to be asymmetric and is most pronounced among the best-rated securities which experience largest volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012917695

The nexus between analyst forecast dispersion and expected returns surrounding stock market crashes

Chong, Terence Tai-Leung; Wang, Xiaolei - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 2 (2009) 1, pp. 75-93

The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556115

Local Predictive Ability of Analyst Recommendations

Karadas, Serkan - 2017

This article shows that aggregate analyst recommendations predict future aggregate excess returns at MSA and state level (i.e. local level). The results hold even after controlling for macroeconomic variables, industry and market returns, as well as investor sentiment. We also show that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943568

Measuring risk information

Smith, Kevin; So, Eric - 2020

We develop a measure of how information events impact investors' perceptions of risk that is broadly applicable and simple to implement. We derive this measure from an option-pricing model where investors anticipate an announcement that simultaneously conveys information on the announcer's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012244502

Idiosyncratic risk puzzle and its pricing : do firm characteristics matter? Evidence of BRICS countries

Kausar, Saba; Rashid, Abdul; Shah, Zulfiqar Ali - In: Borsa Istanbul Review 23 (2023) 1, pp. 149-168

This paper examines the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and stock returns in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries by applying parametric and nonparametric approaches. It also explores the idiosyncratic risk puzzle by dividing firms into groups based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014307488

How to improve quality investing

Otero-González, Luis; Durán Santomil, Pablo; Vieito, … - In: Business research quarterly : BRQ 28 (2025) 2, pp. 453-473

In this article, we evaluate the relationship between quality investing combined with Economic Moat, ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) and analyst opinions over the period 2014-2020 based on a data set comprising 803 US stocks. Performance is evaluated using several metrics (returns and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015375408

Do Investors Recognize Biases in Analysts' Forecasts?

Baird, Philip L. - 2019

This study presents direct evidence on the question whether investors recognize the widely documented biases in securities analysts' earnings forecasts. The internal rate of return implied by current stock price and consensus earnings forecasts is found to be correlated with indicators of bias...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012862149

Does Historical Volatility Term Structure Contain Valuable Information for Predicting Volatility and Index Futures?

Jablecki, Juliusz - 2014

We suggest that the term structure of volatility futures (e.g. VIX futures) shows a clear pattern of dependence on the … level (over 30) it is strongly downward sloping. We use those features to better predict future volatility and index futures …. We begin by introducing some quantitative measures of volatility term structure (VTS) and volatility risk premium (VRP …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046744

Optimal long-term allocation with pension fund liabilities

Jondeau, Eric; Rockinger, Michael - 2014

We build a macroeconomic model for Switzerland, the Euro Area, and the USA that drives the dynamics of several asset classes and the liabilities of a representative Swiss (defined-contribution) pension fund. This encompassing approach allows us to generate correlations between returns on assets...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010442892

Expected Returns and the Predictability of Equity Lending Fees

Andrews, Spencer - 2022

Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013491786