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Bayesian VAR forecasts fail to live up to their promise
Bischoff, Charles W.; Belay, Halefom; Kang, In-bong - In: Business economics : the journal of the National … 35 (2000) 3, pp. 19-29
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001502002
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Empirical comparison of inflation models' forecast accuracy
Eitrheim, Øyvind; Husebø, Tore Anders; Nymoen, Ragnar - In: A companion to economic forecasting, (pp. 354-385). 2002
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001893666
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Is forecasting with large models informative? : assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts
Mestre, Ricardo; McAdam, Peter - In: Journal of forecasting 30 (2011) 3, pp. 303-324
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009233888
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Is forecasting with large models informative? : assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts
Mestre, Ricardo; McAdam, Peter - 2008
We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794046
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Is Forecasting with Large Models Informative? Assessing the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasts
Mestre, Ricardo; McAdam, Peter - 2021
We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316469
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Comparing Forecasting Methods : Why Do Traditional Macroeconometric Models Remain Popular?
Bachman, Daniel - 2011
No macroeconometeric forecasting technique anticipated the financial market meltdown and subsequent Great Recession in 2008-2009. This failure is not surprising because it is hard to forecast unprecedented events. The experience explains, however, why many forecasters, particular those supplying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131462
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Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight
Leeper, Eric M. - 2015
Legislative and implementation lags imply that substantial time evolves between when news arrives about fiscal changes and when the changes actually take place -- time when households and firms can adjust their behavior. We identify two types of fiscal news -- government spending using the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020211
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Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany : An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model
Botman, Dennis P. J. - 2007
In 2005, the German government announced a far-reaching fiscal adjustment program. This paper uses the IMF's Global Fiscal Model to study its impact and explores options for addressing long-term pressures from population aging. The growth effects of the planned VAT increase are likely modest,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777523
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Methoden der Steuerschätzung im internationalen Vergleich
Büttner, Thiess; Kauder, Björn - 2008
der Erstellung eines Gutachtens zum Thema "Methoden der Steuerschätzung im internationalen Vergleich" beauftragt. Im … Ergebnis zeigte der Vergleich der Methoden der Steuerschätzung eine Reihe von Unterschieden zwischen den Praktiken der Länder … Transparenz und Dokumentation. Zusammenfassend offenbart der internationale Vergleich der Methoden der Steuerschätzung …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011845537
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Methoden der Steuerschätzung im internationalen Vergleich
Büttner, Thiess; Kauder, Björn - 2008
der Erstellung eines Gutachtens zum Thema "Methoden der Steuerschätzung im internationalen Vergleich" beauftragt. Im … Ergebnis zeigte der Vergleich der Methoden der Steuerschätzung eine Reihe von Unterschieden zwischen den Praktiken der Länder … Transparenz und Dokumentation. Zusammenfassend offenbart der internationale Vergleich der Methoden der Steuerschätzung …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003779819