In this paper we show how to quantify the uncertainty in the difference between the best estimate for the ultimate claim viewed at the beginning and at the end of one year. A second aspect in this paper is how bootstrapping techniques can be used to simulate these uncertainty for several...

The paper proposes a new algorithm for finding the confidence set of a collection of forecasts or prediction models. Existing numerical implementations for finding the confidence set use an elimination approach where one starts with the full collection of models and successively eliminates the...

The paper highlights causal inference based on econometric measurement in real-time data environments. Each state has a probability of being realized in real-time. We define state selection bias as arising when real-time environments are ignored. We model indicator variables as measurements that...