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The predictive power of risk elicitation tasks

Garagnani, Michele - 2020

This work reports an online experiment with a general-population sample examining the performance of budget …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292131

The Predictive Power of Risk Elicitation Tasks

Garagnani, Michele - 2020

This work reports an online experiment with a general-population sample examining the performance of budget …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823266

The Explanatory and Predictive Power of Non Two-Stage Probability Theories of Decision Making Under Ambiguity

Hey, John Denis; Pace, Noemi - 2011

Representing ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower (which is transparent and not manipulable) and asking the subjects a series of allocation questions (which are more efficient than pairwise choice questions), we obtain data from which we can estimate by maximum likelihood methods...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014177352

A Fundamental Prediction Error : Self-Others Discrepancies in Risk Preference

Hsee, Christopher K.; Weber, Elke U. - 2011

This research examined whether people can accurately predict the risk preferences of others.Three experiments featuring different designs revealed a systematic bias: that participants predicted others to be more risk seeking than themselves in risky choices, regardless of whether the choices...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014026773

Cross-National Differences in Risk Preference and Lay Predictions

Hsee, Christopher K.; Weber, Elke U. - 2011

This research explores whether there are systematic cross-national differences in choice-inferred risk preferences between Americans and Chinese. Study 1 found(a) that the Chinese were signi®cantly more risk seeking than the Americans, yet(b) that both nationals predicted exactly the opposite...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014026775

Predicting Financial Risk Taking Behavior : A Comparison of Questionnaires

Grable, John - 2019

tested questionnaires represented measures derived from economic and psychometric theory. It was determined that … questionnaires based on economic theory had similar predictive power, implying that both measures provided some degree of reliability … across measures. Only the psychometric theory-based risk tolerance measure was found to be correlated to other indicators of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897998

False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices

Hembach-Stunden, Katharina; Vorlaufer, Tobias; Engel, … - In: Q open : a journal of agricultural, climate, … 4 (2024) 1, pp. 1-22

' responsiveness in the long run. Using an online experiment, we assess how false alarm and missed alarm-prone forecast systems …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053857

Avoiding Moral Hazards in Organizational Forecasting

Hogg, Tad; Huberman, Bernardo A. - 2003

We describe a new mechanism that induces accurate forecasts within an organization while reducing moral hazards and the stigma associated with negative opinions. It is based on the notion of identity escrow, whereby the identity of a forecaster is kept anonymous and only revealed when a number...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014106789

Who can predict farmers' choices in risky gambles?

Schaak, Henning; Rommel, Jens; Sagebiel, Julian; … - In: Q open : a journal of agricultural, climate, … 4 (2024) 2, pp. 1-23

Risk is a pervasive factor in agriculture and a subject of great interest to agricultural economists. However, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the knowledge held by farm advisors, students, and economists with regards to farmers' risk preferences. Misconceptions about farmers'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015374814

Ambiguity attitudes and surprises : experimental evidence on communicating new information within a large population sample

Minnich, Aljoscha; Roggenkamp, Hauke; Lange, Andreas - 2023

This paper investigates ambiguity attitudes for natural events (temperatures) and how they are updated following new information. Using a general population sample, we first obtain baseline ambiguity attitudes for future weather events based on real temperatures over several past days. Second,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431440