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been re-calibrated and re-estimated to reflect economic conditions since the introduction of inflation targeting in 2001 … historical shock and forecast-error-variance decompositions, and assessing its forecasting performance against a suite of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115010
variance decomposition of US inflation. We also find that domestic currency has higher share of the forecast error variance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056801
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the nature of professionals’ inflation forecasts inattentiveness. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013178028
wage inflation, the data are measured in a model consistent way, and market-expected interest rates are used to measure the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014369357
, known as soft-landing policies, focused on a stable growth in the economy by keeping the inflation low, with the ultimate … decision theory and the Bayesian have predicted the 2001 recession correctly, but the overall reliability of their predictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014093688
In an attempt to predict a peak in the U.S. economy using a classical statistical decision methodology and a Bayesian methodology and using the 1996 revised composite leading economic indicators, it is learned that the Bayesian models have generally outperformed the classical statistical ones...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014049938
On November 26, 2001, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the U.S. economy had officially entered into a recession in March 2001. This decision was a surprise and did not end all the conflicting opinions expressed by economists. This matter was finally settled in July 2002...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014093689
On November 26, 2001, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the U.S. economy had officially entered into a recession in March 2001. This decision was a surprise and did not end all the conflicting opinions expressed by economists. This matter was finally settled in July 2002...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014064007
The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the structure and dynamics of professionals' forecast of inflation … multi-period forecast and, thereby, the expected momentum of inflation. Using number survey-based data for the US and UK, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429166
Establishing the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts is essential if laboratory experiments are to be … used as decision-making tools for monetary policy. Our contribution is to document whether different measures of inflation … information, suggesting the presence of some form of bounded rationality or information imperfections. Finally, lagged inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897871