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We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which … calibration with respect to bootstrapped residuals. We make three main contributions to the literature of real estate bubbles … critical times of historical housing price bubbles in the U.S., Hong Kong, U.K. and Canada. Second, the LPPLS detection methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761282
price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought … the bubbles in the sample. Therefore, the paper suggests a combination approach of different bubble indicators which helps … to account for the uncertainty around start and end dates of asset price bubbles. Additionally, the paper then …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018260
This paper shows, from the consumer budget constraint, that the consumption spending and the different components of total wealth, i.e. financial, housing and human wealths, are cointegrated and that deviations from the common trend cahy is a proxy for the consumption-wealth ratio that should...
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This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter...
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We conduct a pseudo real-time analysis of the existence and severity of speculative bubbles in eleven US sectors over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968410
This paper sheds new light on the mutual relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns corresponding to the bubble component of stock prices. We propose to use the wavelet concept of the phase angle to determine the lead-lag relation between these variables. The wavelet phase angle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011325814