One of the most crucial decisions for investors and plan sponsors is the selection of funds among the thousands of available alternatives. We stress that an investor first needs to specify a target alpha, i.e., the expected fund return in excess of a benchmark, and that the target alpha...

Stock momentum, long-term reversal, and other past return characteristics that predict future returns also predict future realized betas, suggesting these characteristics capture time-varying risk compensation. We formalize this argument with a conditional factor pricing model. Using...

We create a market-wide measure of dispersion in options investors' expectations by aggregating across all stocks the dispersion in trading volume across moneynesses (DISP). DISP exhibits strong negative predictive power for future market returns and its information content is not subsumed by...

We introduce a new measure of stock misevaluation, 𝑄, which is consistent with the Gordon growth model for firm valuation. In our empirical application, we use 𝑄 to relate analyst forecasts to stock returns and measure the profitability of investment strategies that rely on information in...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis on stock return predictability in Santiago Stock Exchange from January 2007 to January 2016 by employing portfolio method. In the risk-related predictors, we found no statistically significant predictive power of beta, total volatility, and...

We examine whether real-time return forecasts are valuable to an investor looking to allocate their portfolio across a wide selection of countries. We expand the Sum-of-Parts (SoP) method for forecasting stock returns to an international setup by adding FX returns as an additional component. We...

Previous research finds that machine learning methods predict short-term return variation in the cross-section of stocks, even when these methods do not impose strict economic restrictions. However, without such restrictions, the models' predictions fail to generalize in a number of important...

We show that earning non-hedge fund income is associated with lower future hedge fund performance. Specifically, generating non-hedge fund income reflects weakened alignment between the incentives of hedge fund management firm owners and the interests of investors. Using a hand-collected...

A great deal of research effort has sought to understand whether fund managers have skill. However, most of this research draws inferences from fund returns attributable to funds that may have been managed by many different managers over the years. In this paper we focus on the fund manager. We...