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the literature, our empirical findings reveal a negative impact of firm-specific uncertainty on investment. However …, further results show that the investment response is asymmetric, depending on the size and direction of the forecast error …. The investment propensity declines significantly if the realized situation is worse than expected. However, firms do not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445660
generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible due to its separation of ambiguity aversion from both risk aversion and … variance premium puzzle besides the puzzles of the equity premium, the risk-free rate, and the return predictability …. Specifically, the model matches reasonably well key asset-pricing moments with risk aversion under 5. Model calibration shows that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617667
A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057407
Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012015877
risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053857
backtest at the 1% risk level for single models and for linear and log pools. We also find that the robust VaR backtest … exhibited by linear and log pools is better than the one of single models at the 5% risk level. Finally, the equally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903836
The Great Recession has been characterised by the two stylized facts: the buildup of leverage in the household sector in the period preceding the recession and a protracted economic recovery that followed. We attempt to explain these two facts as an information friction, whereby agents are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011656163
Modeling the price risk of CO2 certificates is one important aspect of integral corporate risk management related to … emissions trading. The paper presents a risk model which may be the basis for evaluating the risk of emission certificate prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013069394
correlations with risk factors. We present two parsimonious alternatives to the HVZ model: the EP model based on persistence in … and risk factors. We recommend that future research use the RI model or the EP model to generate earnings forecasts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063029