We study decision behavior in the selection, forecasting, and production for a new product. In a stylized behavioral model and five experiments across three populations, we generate new insight into when and why this combination of tasks can lead to overconfidence. We theorize that cognitive...

Even when human point forecasts are less accurate than data-based algorithm predictions, they can still help boost performance by being used as algorithm inputs. Assuming one uses human judgment indirectly in this manner, we propose changing the elicitation question from the traditional direct...