This paper offers a joint estimation approach for forecasting probabilities of default and loss rates given default in the presence of selection. The approach accommodates fixed and random risk factors. An empirical analysis identifies bond ratings, borrower characteristics and macroeconomic...

Recent studies find a positive correlation between default and loss given default rates of credit portfolios. In response, financial regulators require financial institutions to base their capital on 'Downturn' loss rates given default which are also known as Downturn LGDs. This article proposes...

Correlations are the main drivers for credit portfolio risk and constitute a Major element in pricing credit derivatives such as synthetic single-tranche collateralized debt obligation swaps. This paper suggests a dynamic panel regression Approach to model and forecast implied correlations....