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High-frequency financial and economic activity indicators are usually time aggregated before forecasts of low-frequency macroeconomic events, such as recessions, are computed. We propose a mixed-frequency modelling alternative that delivers high-frequency probability forecasts (including their...
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We show how to improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms by estimating the models on "lightly-revised" data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. Forecast accuracy is improved by reorganizing the data vintages employed in the...
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