We use the daily internet search volume from millions of households to reveal market-level sentiment. By aggregating the volume of queries related to household concerns (e.g. "recession", "unemployment" and "bankruptcy"), we construct a Financial and Economic Attitudes Revealed by Search (FEARS)...

Firm-level variables that predict cross-sectional stock returns, such as price-to-earnings and short interest, are often averaged and used to predict the time series of market returns. We extend this literature and limit the data-snooping bias by using a large population of the literature's...

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...