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In this paper I examine whether one can use analyst forecasts of macroeconomic variables to improve investors ex-ante allocation of wealth between stocks and bonds. Such forecasts provide a forward-looking approach which I find improves investor's information set for the myopic stock-bond...
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The experimental approach is applied to explore the value of unidentified historical information in stock-return prediction. Return sequences were randomly drawn cross section and time from historical S&P500 data. Subjects were requested to predict returns or select stocks from 12 preceding...
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This paper defines risk-on risk-off (RORO), an elusive terminology in pervasive use, as the variation in global … investor risk taking behavior. Our high-frequency RORO index captures time-varying investor risk appetite across multiple … dimensions: advanced economy credit risk, equity market volatility, funding conditions, and currency dynamics. The index exhibits …
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