Long-term country equity premium forecasts based on a cross-sectional global factor model (CS-GFM), where factors represent compensation for risks proxied by valuation and financial variables, are superior, statistically and economically, from forecasts based on time-series prediction models...

This paper analyses several volatility models by examining their ability to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for two different time periods and two capitalization weighting schemes. Specifically, VaR is calculated for large and small capitalization stocks, based on Dow Jones (DJ) Euro Stoxx...

The paper investigates whether oil price shocks and oil price volatility provide predictive information for the state of the US stock market returns and volatility. The disaggregation of oil price shocks according to their origin allows us to assess whether they contain incremental forecasting...