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This paper provides insight view of an investor mind dueling on proving the fact that a series of event in a company could cause a dramatic move on to practitioners who wish to forecast market returns based on event occurrences.Using 12 years (2006 to 2018) historical data of Foxconn Company...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893996
multivariate CKLS framework is employed for dynamic estimation and forecasting of four classical models over the eventful period of … potential benefit of gradually increasing the model-flexibility. The Gaussian estimation methods for dynamic continuous time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998113
using monthly rather than daily returns to estimate the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). I show that when using … intercept and slope coefficients. I present a simulation study and empirical examples of the CAPM and Fama French three factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236528
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure to cope with the documented difficulties of previous methodologies. We … foreign exchange markets. -- Random Lognormal cascades ; GMM estimation ; best linear forecasting ; volatility of financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009389845
This study focuses on the impact of model estimation methods on earnings forecast accuracy. Compared with an ordinary … least squares (OLS) regression combined with winsorization, robust regression MM-estimation improves the earnings forecast … robust regression MM-estimation. This study contributes to earnings forecasting, valuation, and influential observation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850667
We develop a penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings. The penalization in the first pass enforces sparsity for the time-variation drivers while also maintaining compatibility with the no arbitrage restrictions by regularizing appropriate groups of coefficients. The second...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487589
I assess time-series return predictability using a weighted least squares estimator that is around 25% more efficient than ordinary least squares (OLS) because it incorporates time-varying volatility into its point estimates. Traditional predictors, such as the dividend yield, perform better in-...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937504
We evaluate the performance of various methods for estimating factor returns in an approximate factor model. Differences across estimators are most pronounced when there is cross-sectional heteroskedasticity, or when cross-sectional sample sizes, n, are below 4,000 assets. Estimators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938133
This paper introduces a novel method to extract the sentiment embedded in the Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD &A) section of 10-K filings. The proposed method outperforms traditional approaches in terms of sentiment classification accuracy. Utilizing this method, the MD &A sentiment is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015372743
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012878872