analyst coverage links documented in the literature. The cross-return predictability is not significant in the bond market … market segmentation between the equity and bond markets …

traders vary enormously in their behavior. This contrasts with the standard prediction-market models, which assume relatively … distortionary effects on market outcomes even when beliefs are symmetrically distributed around the truth. Simulations of a model … which allows traders to have different motives and tastes for risk indicate that including such traders produce the market …

. Price movements are consistent with market participants who interpret major news in a way which confirms their prior beliefs …

The CFTC has recently licensed a commercial prediction market to operate in the US. Previous theoretical work has not … incorporated that prediction markets charge fees. We examine the impact of fees by introducing them to a model in which the market …