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Can Information Alleviate Overconfidence? A Randomized Experiment on Financial Market Predictions
Ida, Takanori - 2020
In this study, we examine how information provision affects the degree of overconfidence using an online experiment. The 4,210 experimental participants engaged in stock market prediction exercises were asked to evaluate their absolute and relative performance. We conducted a randomized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847379
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Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm's life cycle
Chen, Cheng; Senga, Tatsuro; Sun, Chang; Zhang, Hongyong - 2020
demand. The former learning effect, combined with the latter real-options effect, adversely affect firms' entry decisions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258487
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Individual Differences in Insular Sensitivity During Loss Anticipation Predict Avoidance Learning
Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R.; Hollon, Nicholas G.; … - 2015
research has not examined whether individual differences in insular sensitivity predict learning to avoid aversive stimuli. In … that in addition to correlating with self-reported anxiety, heightened insular sensitivity may promote learning to avoid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014191063
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Evaluation of Econometric Models of Adaptive Learning by Predictive Measures
Chernov, Gregory - 2020
Game-theoretic models of learning are hard to study even in the laboratory setting due to econometric and practical … for why this cross-model predictive quality is a particularly relevant way for improving learning models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827651
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Learning, Forecasting and Optimizing : An Experimental Study
Te, Bao; Duffy, John; Hommes, Cars H. - 2013
Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014175810
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Traders, Forecasters and Financial Instability : A Model of Individual Learning of Anchor-and-Adjustment Heuristics
Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2019
(Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2018) have shown that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894616
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Bubble formation and (in)efficient markets in learning-to-forecast and -optimise experiments
Te, Bao; Hommes, Cars H.; Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2015
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
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Traders, forecasters and financial instability : a model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics
Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2019
(Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2017) have shown that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011956452
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Learning, Forecasting and Optimizing : An Experimental Study
Te, Bao; Duffy, John; Hommes, Cars H. - 2016
Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: 1) agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and 2) given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172774
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Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments
Hommes, Cars H. (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008
all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning to …. -- Learning ; heterogeneous expectations ; genetic algorithms ; experimental economics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257