At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket’s...

Political scientists have offered much evidence that political behavior and attitudes can spread or diffuse through society. For the most part, however, proof of diffusion is limited to excluding other alternatives and showing that a model is “consistent with” a social diffusion process. In...

This study seeks to identify the principal factors that influence the results of the House midterm elections. The regression findings suggest that Gallup presidential approval rankings, percentage changes in RGDP, and the results of Virginia’s gubernatorial elections enter positively in...

Problem. Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of Forecasting provide more accurate forecasts?Methods. To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published regression models used for forecasting 154 elections in...