We develop a conditional factor model for the term structure of treasury bonds, which unifies non parametric curve estimation with cross-sectional asset pricing. Our factors correspond to the optimal non-parametric basis functions spanning the discount curve. They are investable portfolios...

A Simple Method for Predicting Covariance Matrices of Financial Returns makes three contributions. It proposes a new method for predicting the time-varying covariance matrix of a vector of financial returns and a new method for evaluating a covariance predictor. The third contribution is an...

We introduce a robust, flexible and easy-to-implement method for estimating the yield curve from Treasury securities. This method is non-parametric and optimally learns basis functions in reproducing Hilbert spaces with an economically motivated smoothness reward. We provide a closed-form...