The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

Technological progress in recent years has made new methods available for making forecasts in a variety of areas. We examine the success of ex-ante stock market forecasts of three major stock market indices, i.e., the German Stock Market Index (DAX), the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI), and the...

Using a novel and direct measure of investor sentiment, I find that Facebook's Gross National Happiness (GNH) has the ability to predict changes in both daily returns and trading volume in the US stock market. For instance, an increase of one standard deviation in GNH is associated with an...

Using a novel and direct measure of investor sentiment, I find that Facebook's Gross National Happiness (GNH) has the ability to predict changes in both daily returns and trading volume in the US stock market. For instance, an increase of one standard deviation in GNH is associated with an...

We enhance the precision of predicting daily stock market price volatility using the maximum overlapping discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) spectral model and two learning approaches: the heuristic gradient descent (FS.HGD) and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HyFIS). The FS.HGD approach...